Wrapping up the Convention

Very interesting speech from McCain last night. He was OK (like I said, he is just not a great speaker, but he did fine) but the content of the speech was really interesting.

First, what I thought was missing: policy details. The speech dealt mainly with broad themes and big ideas. There is actually nothing wrong with this, since legislation does not get made during a nomination acceptance;-). Obama gave a much more granular speech last week (which he probably did because he gets criticized for not doing it), but I am not real sure what that accomplishes, either. All in all, I think the level of policy detail was probably appropriate for both of them... as a little more of a known quantity, we need less of that from McCain.

I thought, much like Palin the night before, that he started slow. He did a pretty good job of handling Bush...he noted his leadership through 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (which the two of them are basically on the same page with) but never gave the Democrats a really concrete sound byte linking them together. He never even mentioned him by name!

While the previous couple of nights had been devoted to the base...real hearty attacks on Obama and a reiteration of Republican principles...McCain was much more magnanimous and moderate ("I wouldn't be an American worthy of the name if I didn't honor Sen. Obama and his supporters for their achievement.") He was shooting at the middle as much as the right.

The most interesting part was that he totally and completely threw his own party under the bus. Well, not just his party, but basically The President and everyone in Congress. Which, by the way, they totally deserve! It is not really out of character for him to do it, and he did it concerning a subject (wasteful spending) that is one of his trademarks, and which, incidentally, he is completely right about;-).

Still, to see a major party candidate take his own party to task right along with the other guys like that...well, THAT is an upset. Especially after they took three days to really feed the base.

The biggest problem with the speech? Well...it is McCain himself, who just doesn't have the presence that some other's do. Like...the closing section...just read this and imagine that Obama is speaking it...

"Fight for what's right for our country. Fight for the ideals and character of a free people. Fight for our children's future. Fight for justice and opportunity for all. Stand up to defend our country from its enemies. Stand up for each other, for beautiful, blessed, bountiful America. Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable here. We're Americans, and we never give up.
We never quit.

We never hide from history. We make history."

It comes across a little differently, doesn't it? That is one of his challenges going forward.

So, let's see...what did I like. I loved "Education is the civil rights issue of the 21st century." I liked his telling of his POW experience...which surprised me. It is a story that has been told so many times that it almost loses its effectiveness, although he managed to tell it from a different angle this time, which I thought worked. And I think he scored some points on energy, taking a broader view of traditional production and renewable research and development than Obama does.

Final analysis? The more I think about it, the more I think he dropped the ball a bit. He talked about changing the ways of Washington, but other than cutting wasteful spending, he didn't really go into what that meant (not that cutting wasteful spending is not a good idea...) But mostly, I think he tried to speak to the middle at the expense of his base, while last week I think Obama managed to speak to the middle and his base.

Before the conventions, Obama was up in the polls by 1-3 points. He got a bump to something closer to 7-9 points, and McCain will now get his bump and cut into that. My intuition says it will go back to the high end of that original range. So, by the middle-end of next week, I am saying Obama by about 3 points...just a hunch.

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In much less national news, I am getting a new roommate this weekend;-) I am pretty excited about that! More on this tomorrow or Monday when I have time:-)

Que Sarah, Sarah

So, everyone seems to love Sarah Palin today, and I can see why. Overall, I thought she did a good job last night...although I am not sure I agree with the overwhelming raves that she got. To be fair, I thought the same of Bill Clinton and Joe Biden last week, so maybe the coverage is just nice this year...I dunno.

I felt like she started very slowly...she spent too much time introducing her kids (although the little girl waving and fixing her baby brother's hair was priceless.) I also felt like she spent virtually no time talking about why she was the right person for the job she is up for. Obviously, the standard for the VP on policy outlines is a lot lower, but I would have liked to hear a little bit more about her view of the world. We got some very small snippets, but not much. Again, I am not sure it was much more of less than Biden gave last week, but I would have liked to see a little more.

I thought her defense of McCain was very good. Clearly, there is a concerted effort from the GOP to focus the discussion on "character", which is a category that McCain scores very well in. It also has the advantage of being un-attackable...it is hard to attack him on that front and not look stupid and petty.

The strongest part of the speech was the attack portion. The Vice President is traditionally there to be on the attack, and she showed that she is ready for that job. And the whole thing was classic Republican...witty, sarcastic, belittling. I wrote earlier this year that Obama would have to be ready for a MUCH higher degree of criticism when the general election came about, and that is clearly here. Every plays a little bit nice during the primaries, but the gloves come off after Labor Day.

The worst thing Obama can do is get into a pissing match with her about who's experience is the thinnest. She belittled his work as a "community organizer", and he is probably tempted to say something like "I have seen Boys Clubs with more people than Wasilla, AK." But all that does is draw attention to his weakness, and cede the "readiness" argument to McCain. He has to let it go...don't mention her age or experience and attack her on the issues.

I thought her best line was "Our opponent has written two memoirs but no legislation..." That is so fantastically biting on at least two levels...it points out that he has no accomplishments as a Senator (this is one of the reasons Senators so rarely win the Presidency...NONE of them have any tangible accomplishments to single out) and implies that he has a massive opinion of himself, without saying it explicitly.

So, what is the upshot? I thought her primary task was just to demonstrate that she belongs on this stage. And she seems to have passed that test...she seemed pretty comfortable and she was clearly not shy about picking a fight. At this point, it looks like she is not Dan Quayle.

Was it a rousing, "speech-of-a-generation"? Nah...not quite. She did well, she showed that she is gonna be in this fight and will be a good candidate, and she did what she needed to do to energize the Republicans for this election. If we are going to compare...I thought she was better than Biden was last week.

As for McCain...well, we shall see. He is not a terribly dynamic speaker, although he can be very eloquent at times. My guess is that he will not be received nearly as well as Obama was last week, but that a reading of the text of the speech will be just as inspiring.

His problem...who (besides dorks like me) ever reads the text of speeches?

Joe-Mentum!

So, the Republican convention is underway, and it has a totally different feel than the Democrats. It seems to be seriously lacking in the energy that we saw last week (although that could be reversed tonight, because that whole building is just dying to love Sarah Palin, and if she delivers they will completely explode.)

I have a couple of theories.

1) The Hurricane has everyone out of sorts. The convention didn't start on time, the agenda has changed, and no one really knows whether they should be totally celebrating or not.

2) The building is half empty. Seriously...Democrats have twice as many delegates as Republicans, and the GOP should consider upping their number to get some more energy into the place. The number is arbitrary...hike it.

3) The speakers...ugh. Fred Thompsen was pretty good, although the power was in the story, not in the delivery. Bush is just Bush...we have all seen that movie before. Lieberman was, well, he is what he is, too. And what is he? BORING! He did OK with his stuff about what a great guy McCain is, but how many times can he repeat "We are not Republicans or Democrats, we are Americans!" Like...I dunno...30? He would have been much better if he had just said "You all know I am ruining my career to do this, right? Well, I have known that from the beginning of this campaign, and that is how strongly I feel about it."

I am a little confused about the talk today of Lieberman's "criticism" of Obama and whether it was "over the line." Are we serious? He barely mentioned him, and when he did, it was with praise for his intelligence, eloquence and potential, followed by "but, I don't think he is ready just yet." That counts as "over the line"? Well...then I have really bad news for you, because there is a LOT worse than that coming...

All in all, not a real good night for McCain, I don't think. Just not that exciting.

Tonight will have a lot more energy, no doubt. And way more viewers. This is Sarah Palin's big night, and the party is clearly absolutely fired up for that. She has managed to do for McCain what the first 16 months of this campaign have not...really energized evangelicals, hardcore catholics, gun owners and pro-lifers. There has been a ton of talk about the fracture in the Democratic party, but the Republicans are also far from a united front, and she has done an enormous amount to fix that already (and, more importantly, to get them to open their checkbooks.)

In closing, I want to leave you with one thought. I have found myself focusing a lot on how the media treats Republicans and Democrats differently (I could write a very long post on this someday...in short, Democrats are usually treated as idealistic, weak-willed sissies and Republicans are treated as insensitive, heartless wealth mongers).

So, I would like to point to a quote that was on the front page of the New York Times yesterday. The Times, of course, is the great bastion of liberalism and has long been a leading voice for left-wing economics and politics and liberal social causes. Included in this would, of course, be the women's movement. So, I was a little surprised to see the Times note that she is attempting to be a mother and a Vice President, and then asking "Is she right to try?"

Never mind the obvious...that there have been BOATLOADS of male politicians with small children. Including a particular Senator from Illinois with two kids under age 10. And no one would ever dream of asking whether or not he was "right to want to be a father and a President." We all know there is a double standard...blah blah blah.

My question is not how would the New York Times have handled this if Sarah Palin was a man...my question is "How would they have handled it if she was a Democrat?"

Adventures in Sistering. Or Mothering.

Two posts today...I have more politics as well, but I need to cover the weekend and the beginning of school and yada yada yada.

The weekend was really a great end to the summer. I say "weekend", but I was at the beach for basically all of two weeks, so it was a little more than just a weekend. It was really wonderful to have Tinkerbelle around, and I think I will remember this visit fondly for a very, very long time. Just about the only major thing in my life that bothers me is that I don't get to see her very often...it is very hard to get to know someone from this kind of distance, so having the chance to spend two weeks with her all by herself was really a treat.

And she did great! That is a really long time to be away from home at her age, but she did really well. She did have a meltdown on Friday...she was tired and homesick and hungry and just basically wanted to go home. But she went to bed early and rallied for Saturday:-). I thought about sending her home by herself...she said she would go alone and she would have been fine and her uncle was at the airport to get her...but in the end I decided it would be better if I went with her. So, I flew back to Chicago with her on Sunday to essentially drop her off, then turned around and headed straight back home.

I probably should have planned that better and seen a couple of people while I was there, but it was sort of last minute. I just had this horrible feeling that there would be turbulence or something scary and she would be all by herself and I couldn't bear to think of that:-)

So, all in all, it was a great visit, and I am really glad to have had the opportunity. Obviously, not the greatest of circumstances, but I think it worked out well...Tinkerbelle had a fun vacation, I got to spend some time with my littlest sister, and her Mom got to go through the hardest part of her recovery without worrying about the little one. So, win-win-win, right? Her Mom is doing better, too...they got all of the swelling under control and that eased the pain quite a bit.

They are both back home, and one of our cousins is staying with them for a bit to sort of help out and make sure everything is OK. She is in High School and lives just a couple miles away, so she will likely just run back and forth and make sure the Tinkerbelle's Mom doesn't have to do anything to hurt herself worse. This is why I love my Father's family so much...they are just the nicest, warmest, most helpful people you can imagine:-).

Munchkin started school again yesterday, too. Seventh grade...and exactly how the fuck did that happen? I think back to the day I dropped her off for her first day of fourth grade and it seems like only a couple of months ago. I am happy to report that all of the horrible anxiety I had that day, and all of the immense worries were very much for naught:-) Things have worked out pretty darn well...

One minor issue...back to school clothes shopping. Actually, that is kind of a misnomer, since she doesn't need any clothes for school: they wear uniforms, so she just needs khaki pants and skirts (one more reminder that I am strongly in favor of school uniforms). But she needed some new fall clothes, so we did some shopping the other day.

Let's just say that she is developing her own sense of fashion, and it is somewhat at odds with my vision for her;-). Let's also say that she is very comfortable with her own body (which I am happy about...better that than a whole bunch of debilitating body image issues.) And let's also say that she has become keenly aware of how to dress that body in the most effective manner. However, let us also say that no girl completely picks up all of the nuances of appropriate dressing at age 13 (or even like 17!)

And now you can probably see where the disagreement comes in during clothes shopping;-) (The phrase "You can't wear that, you look like a hooker," may have come out once. Although, in fairness, she repeated it to me at one point and she was right...lol.)

It really isn't that big a deal...it's not like we sit and fight over it...I just noticed a lot more disagreement this time around, and it took us much longer than it usually does. I am all for her looking cute, and I am really proud of her for being this comfortable in her own skin...it is just that girls her age that are changing so fast have trouble keeping up with their own bodies sometimes. It takes a while to really understand your own body well enough to dress yourself all the time.

And that, to me, is one of the roles of being a Mom. Maybe I am overreacting and I need to let her make her own mistakes...but so be it, I can only do what I feel is right.

Also, I am at least moderately jealous that she can already wear things that I can't...god damn you, boobs!!!

Catching up on old news...

Welcome back from the long weekend, everyone:-) There is much to discuss since I have conveniently neglected to blog since...oh...Friday? The Boy and the rest of the crew showed up on Friday and I was pretty busy all weekend (by "busy", I mean "socializing"). Pretty big crowd in the end...the house was just about full. It will take me a couple of days to get through all of the blog materials...

First up, Sarah Palin. I have to admit to still not having a firm opinion on her.

There are things I like: I am impressed that she is almost kinda hot:-P. And she is clearly very tough and very independent...she has basically dismantled the Alaska Republican Party by rooting out all of the old crooked guys, and she seems to fit into McCain's image as "maverick." She also shut down one of the worst Federal pork barrel projects in the country, which fits right into another of McCain's causes. Her family story (even with the knocked up daughter) is tremendous, right down to her husband being a steel-working snowmobile racer.

There are things that I don't personally like, but that many people will: Socially, she is SUPER conservative. Totally non-negotiable pro-guns and pro-life.

And then there is her relative inexperience. Be careful, Democrats...THIS IS A TRAP!!! She is younger than Obama, and has very, very little foreign policy experience (I wouldn't say that she has absolutely none, though...she governs a border state.) However, she has more executive experience and a more concrete record as a reformer than Obama does. What's the upshot? That her experience level is pretty comparable to Obama's: which is to say "Not much".

Here is where that is a problem for Democrats. For all the publicity it gets, virtually no one votes for a President because of the VP. So, any criticism of Palin for being inexperienced is going to stick to Obama much more than it sticks to McCain through her.

Fabulous quote of the day goes to Chuck Schumer, senator from New York "Certainly the choice of Palin puts to rest any argument about inexperience on the Democratic team and while Palin is a fine person, her lack of experience makes the thought of her assuming the presidency troubling." So, which is it, Chuck...are we taking that argument off the table, or are we putting it right back on the table? Obama actually distanced himself from this comment in particular very quickly.

The one thing that has surprised me is the seemingly negative reaction by women. You can dislike her, but to be "offended" is patently ridiculous. And further, anyone who thinks this was intended to court disaffected Hillary Clinton voters is off of his/her rocker. No one who supported Hillary Clinton is going to vote for John McCain because he picked a vehemently Pro-Life female running mate. This move was aimed almost entirely at the base of his own party: evangelical Southern, Western and Midwestern Christians that are somewhat suspicious of McCain.

And while her gender was certainly a factor in her selection, who was the obviously better male candidate that he passed over? Tom Ridge? Mitt Romney? Tim Pawlenty? All have some attraction, but they are all far from perfect, and none speak to the party's base. Bobby Jindal? He would have taken the same exact criticism, only it would have been that McCain picked him just because he is a minority. Joe Liberman? The campaign would have been over before the convention even finished. I don't feel like he really reached on this one...she is an extraordinarily popular governor with an independent streak that appeals to his core voting block. Being a woman certainly helped, but to claim that she was picked solely for that reason is unfair to her, unfair to McCain, and unfair to women politicians.

I don't think that the teenage pregnancy is going to be an issue...she seems to have deflected that, and Troopergate isn't gonna stick, either ("Are we really taking a governor to task for wanting to fire a state trooper that tasered an 11 year old boy to get back at his ex-wife?").

She does, however, have a certain legitimacy bar to hurdle over. She has to prove that she "belongs" on this stage. Obama has no resume either, but he has passed that legitimacy hurdle by looking and sounding the part, and she needs to do the same. It will be harder for her: he has had an 18 month campaign to get used to this...she has to jump right in...but if she passes that threshold, it will be an outstanding pick. If not...Dan Quayle (although, we should note that George HW Bush won that race easily anyway.)

Along with that is the national press. She has yet to be vetted by the nationals, and that could very well turn up some things we haven't heard about. I say that Troopergate will be a non-factor...but that goes out the window if there is more to it than we know now.

So...I am taking a "wait and see". I don't particularly like her social politics, but I think I like her, and I really want to like her. What I am waiting on is to just see if she looks out of place on this stage. She will speak this week, and probably do a lot more press in the next week and a half that will answer that question for us.

Regardless...McCain has managed to spice the race up a bit, which is really about the most you can hope for from a Vice President.