Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Duper!

Well, Brandy is preparing for a sleepless, Anderson Cooper-filled night tonight, because today is Super Tuesday! For those of us that are civics geeks, this is better than Sunday was for football fans. And with fewer expensive commercials... (Actually, Brandy has a job interview, wish her luck...:-))

Massachusetts is one of the 21 states that votes today, and because we have an open primary and I am unenrolled ("Independent" here is an actual party...), I can vote for whoever I want. And since you are all just dying to know who I am going to vote for, I will get to that in a bit. First, a little bit of what I think might happen.

First, today looks to be McCain's day to pretty much wrap this up. He won't mathematically clinch it, but he can do so for all practical purposes. He seems to have big leads in a lot of places, including a bunch where the winner gets all of the delegates (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, for example).

Romney is hanging by a thread. He will do well in some places, but outside of a surprising win in California, he is probably done. He and McCain are pretty close in the polls out there, and if he were to win by 4-5 points and pick up most of the delegates (they award them weirdly out there), it may save him for another week or so. And if Huckabee gets out of the race in that time, he may stand a better chance.

I also have a feeling that today is going to resolve a lot on the Democratic side. The two of them are so close in so many places, I just have a feeling that one of them is going to win a whole bunch of states by just a little bit and really grab the race by the throat. They will both (barring something really wacky) be around at this time next week, but I feel like today is going to be really good for one and really bad for another. The polls show a clear momentum for him, and today will either confirm or deny that.

So...who am I gonna vote for? I know a lot of people hold this very private, and there is good reason for that. I, however, do not:-) I think these things through, feel good about who I vote for and am happy to detail the reasons I have done so. Reasonable people are welcome to disagree.

First, I am voting in the Democratic primary, and not just because both candidates are from Chicago... although that clearly speaks to their character:-D. Mitt Romney was the governor of Massachusetts for four years, and has lived here for a long time. While the Boston Globd and the Democratic machine up here hates him, he should still win the Republican side easily. McCain was campaigning here yesterday, and I don't know why...Romney should win by 15 points or so.

The Democratic race, however, is a total toss-up. Clinton has the support of some Congressman, the Mayor of Boston and a lot of the institutional Democrats that were very loyal to Bill Clinton (who rewarded their money and campaign efforts with loads of Federal jobs and other carrots). Obama has both Senators (Kerry and Kennedy) and the Governor. Polls show the two in a dead heat...and in a state that is so symbolic of all things Democrat, the race carries some signifigance even beyond its delegate count.

And for me, the choice between the two is not terribly hard. Obama is young, inexperienced and could well be in over his head were he to be elected President. He is also very bright, inspirational and...this is important to me...not nearly as negative as the politicians older than he is. I never get the impression that he "hates" Republicans, or that he automatically thinks all of their ideas are evil. I think some of his policy specifics are a little simplistic (pay-as-you-go, for one) and his economic ideas are way too liberal. I think he is far from a perfect candidate, but I would like to see more from him, and I would like to see how he evolves under the lights of a longer campaign for President.

Clinton, however, I have seen enough of. I find her to be a disengenuous, opportunistic phony. She is never out front on anything, and it is really hard to identify exactly what it is that she "stands for". She used to be a rock-solid, die-hard liberal...and she has turned herself into a wishy-washy, centrist agree-er. Also, I dislike the idea that the first woman president would be someone who rose to national prominence solely based on who she was married to. That is a historic role reserved for a historic person, and she is not that caliber of leader. Add to that the idea of Bill floating around the White House for 4-8 more years, and I am not real excited. I have had enough of the Clintons and enough of Bushes and I think it is time that we move on.

So, that is probably not really a ringing endorsement. I don't really love Obama, and I am not willing to say that I would vote for him over either of the Republicans at this point. But I do know that I won't vote for Clinton.

I would still like to see more of him, but I have already made up my mind on her.


Lpeg said...

I'm kind of leaning towards that way as well, but I still need to do some more reading up on either of them before I vote... on Sunday?!?! Oddly enough. Apparently Mainer's votes count... as shite ;)

Sometimes it's like.. what's the point? But I'm still going to vote!!

nicole d. said...

Just a question from little ole Canadian me...when is the nomination process going to be over so the real campaigning can begin?

Accidentally Me said...

LPEG - You never know...if they come out of today basically tied, they will all descend on Maine like locusts for this weekend!

Nicole - The conventions aren't until July, but we will likely know the nominees before then. By tomorrow, we could know who they will be, and may on the Republican side. The Dems may take a few more weeks.

ella said...

I voted for Obama as well. Michelle Obama is FIERCE! I'd like to see her in the White House.

KT said...

when this all started, i was rooting for hillary. then i started wanting edwards to kick some ass. but alas, he dropped out. now i'm sorta leaning towards obama because i'm not a fan of mcain. we'll see where i end up.

Ys said...

i like the how obama's been promoting himself. i feel the same as you do about hilary clinton. she just doesn't deserve to be there.

i can't wait to find out who the candidates are. it's all a bit exciting now. i keep telling people that one of those four faces will be the next US president. they'd better do a better job than bush ;)

Jessie said...

Again, I'm late.

But...I'm convinced that you just pulled every thought I have on Obama and Clinton directly out of my brain and wrote it on your blog.