Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Primarily Excited Again!

Is anyone else really dying for summer to get here? The stretch of nice weather has really gotten me itching for the really good stuff. Sometime really soon it will be time to head to the beach house to get it ready for the season, and that is always a welcome time!

I can't wait to sit on the beach all day. I can't wait for evening margaritas looking out over the ocean. I can't wait for Sunday morning jet ski rides. I can't wait for breakfast on the back deck. I can't wait for the inevitable group of teenage boys who become smitten with Munchkin:-P. Basically, I love summer, I love how I spend my summers and I can't wait for this one to get here.

But first...Pennsylvania! The next in the seemingly endless series of primaries is finally here, and this one looks like it will resolve just as much as the first 40...NOTHING!!! By most polls, Clinton looks to be ahead by about 5 points, a margin which really sheds very little light on the overall race. If she wins by that much, then she will make only a small dent in Obama's leads in delegates, states and votes...but will allow her to pretty clearly claim "momentum". For whatever that's worth.

If she wins by 10, well then she is very definitely back in the race (until next week, at least) and the race could very well go to the convention. But if she wins by just 1 or 2 or loses, well then she is probably pretty much cooked. It would be even more unlikely that she ends up winning, and she would have a hard time convincing people that she was adding a lot by being in the race. More importantly, she would have trouble raising any more money, and at the rate Obama is spending, she needs to raise a lot, and fast.

I have no real insight into this, but I think the state has been so heavily polled that the results will come in close to the poll numbers. Which means she wins by 5 or 6. As for what that means...well, you got me. It is hard for him to argue she should drop out if she just won Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. But if seems pretty hard for her to argue that she is making up any real ground and has a real shot at winning.

8 comments:

A-Ron said...

I'm sorry, did someone say beach?

I'll take a pic, or 3 for you, since you never share any with me. >:(

Ys said...

Yes, cannot WAIT for summer! these teasingly warm days that just aren't quite warm enough are driving me mad!!! :D

anne said...

I am so excited to watch returns tonight!!!

brookem said...

i cant wait for summer either! tomorrow is supposed to be 80 around here, woot!

nicole d. said...

When is someone finally going to be nominated for pete's sake??? The bickering between Obama and Clinton is driving me insane, and I live in Canada!!!

Ally said...

Hurry up and post! I am to lazy to check out CNN and need my political news summary!

p.s. I'm am so thrilled to be going to the beach next month!

brandy said...

Dude.

The 10 point win last night sort of broke my heart. I watched it in a hotel room (I forced my friends to watch it because I'm nice like that) and got a bit deflated.

I have about 9.8 bizillion thoughts on this subject but my brain is still in unpack mode.

But can I just say that the idea of either of them actually securing the nomination now sort of scares me? The backlash from the supporters of the candidate who didn't win is going to be intense I think. Oh, what a mess....

brandy said...

Okay so I've been thinking and now I'm back. I think the 10 point win put me in such a funk because it was the exact thing I did not want. Sure, I'm an Obama supporter, but if Hillary was going to win big, I wanted it to be like, a shut-out. A 15 + point win that would really cement things for her and shut down the voices that she should be out. Or, I wanted it to be a small win- 5 points or less, within the margin of error that would effectively shut down her run. But 10 points? 10 points is like... the worst number.

It just keeps this all going. And despite what the pundits say, I'm starting to think that this race isn't helping the party, just hurting them. McCain can sit back with a notebook and pen right now and scribble down what he's going to use as ammo the way these two keep slinging it at each other.

Okay, now back to grade 2.