Friday, August 22, 2008

Gotta have more Tinkerbelle!

Break out the party hats, today is Brandy's birthday! Coming on the heels of a job disappointment, I think we should all wish her extra-special birthday good wishes for a happy and enjoyable birthday. With lots of cake:-) [And a bevy of beautiful men to lick frosting off of...or, I guess just one. Or two. Two's good.]

Tinkerbelle's mom is not doing well. He back is healing slower than they anticipated and she is going to be in the hospital probably all weekend. The issue now is that they just can't stop fluid from building up near the site. It is slowing, but not enough to let her leave. She is in good spirits, though, and says that the pain is not as bad as they had warned her of, so that is good. I offered to let her stay here until she has to go back to school (a week from Tuesday), and I imagine she may take me up on that. Which would be fun!

There appears to be big news coming on the Obama front...he says he has picked his VP and will announced it maybe today. I have to be honest, the timing seems weird...who makes big announcements on Friday afternoons in the summer? Usually only people who want the news to blow over...and this should NOT be one of those situations. The VP selection is wildly overrated as a deciding factor in the fall election, but it is still news, and seems like something that should be aimed at getting more attention. (For the record, I will guess that it is Joe Biden, but I have no real reason for thinking that.)

And he could use the attention, because his campaign is in a total funk. This site...which is like my daily civics crack...has shown the race go from a seemingly one-sided affair to a virtual dead heat. It is hard to tell where the two candidates stand exactly, but it is obvious that Obama had a big lead two months ago and that lead is almost (or maybe entirely) gone.

McCain's summer strategy is sticking and Obama's is fact, I saw a fascinating piece of analysis (that I can't find now) showing that Obama is actually a very weak candidate (thus far). The metric they used was polling on the question of "Which party are you more inclined to vote for this fall?" or something like that. Basically, "If you remove the individual personalities at every level of the ticket, would you pick a Democrat or a Republican?" The poll showed a national leaning towards Democrats of about 6 points...which is HUGE, and is why the Democrats are going to take an even bigger majority in both houses in November. But Obama is only 2-4 points ahead of McCain in the same national poll...which means that he is under performing against what should be the built in bias for him.

Not sure anyone else finds that as interesting as I do...but it refutes a lot of the conventional wisdom of Obama being a motivational leader and great campaigner (at least when the audience isn't registered Democrats). I dunno...seeing how much money he has raised, how much the media loves him, and how much more high-profile the Democratic primary was than the Republican...I feel like he should be much farther ahead than a couple of points. Or maybe none.

Anyone have any thoughts on this? Or any hopes on who he picks as his running mate? Does it matter at all?


anne said...

I watched CNN for a while last night while on the treadmill and they were saying that over the past decade or so the Democratic campaign has fallen apart during the summer. The candidate goes in with a lead and comes out of August having blown it. Also very interesting that the Republicans know how to run a caimpaign and know when to turn the heat on.

laurwilk said...

Glad Tinkerbelle is visiting much longer! Very exciting.

I am with you on Biden. Not sure why though. It's a gut feeling! Obama does seem to be rapidly losing popularity. He needs to step it up! Do you think he'd pick a GOP VP? Or at least someone who is completely moderate? I think that would maybe be his best bet.

Ally said...

Since Obama doesn't have much experience but is considered "inspirational," perhaps voters who were all excited about him in the beginning (simply because of his change message) are losing enthusiasm as the actual voting (and him potentially becoming the leader of America) is closer. That is my best guess for why he's losing ground.

Have fun with TB!

Aaron said...

I think it matters because clearly anyone he selects will have more experience than he does at running something other than their mouth about "change." ;)

Princess Extraordinaire said...

I think Biden will bring some momentum to the ever slowing Obama campaign....we'll soon find out!