Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Back to Politics

Because I know Brandy is getting the shakes from a lack of Poli-talk...

This presidential race continues to amaze...its really kind of all over the place. There are still at least seven people with some tangible chance of winning (I would say guys like Huckabee, Giuliani and Edwards are bordering on"slim", but they are not out of it by any means) and no real sign of when it will sort itself out. I suppose if Hillary wins in South Carolina, she will be a pretty clear front runner...but an Obama win there (which seems likely) will extend it at least through February 5, when so many of the important races are.

Edwards could be in "must win" mode in South Carolina. He did really well last time, he is from there, and his kind of message seems to resonate well with a big chunk of voters there. Most signs point to him losing, though, and that would be just about it for his campaign.

The Republican side is totally wide open, too. I am wondering if maybe there is some apathy on the Republican side that is contributing to this? Turnouts are down and fundraising is down across the board for them this year, while Democratic numbers are much higher than in the past. I dunno, it is just a thought.

I don't even know how to think about that race right now. Romney has been the most consistent performer so far, but I am not sure that means much (he is the only one who really competed all of them.) Other than the obvious fact that Giuliani has to be right near the top in Florida to be taken seriously, I don't really even know where this race goes from here.

This will almost certainly go into February 5 as at least a three-horse race, and maybe four. And that means that Florida will be HUGE (which is interesting, considering it barely counts,...more below). Florida is the second most important state for a Republican (after Texas) if you think about where their money and electoral vote base comes from. Right now, it is basically a toss-up between Romney, Giuliani and McCain, with the winner becoming the clear favorite on Super Tuesday. And if Huckabee wins in South Carolina, call that a four way toss-up.

We vote on February 5, and I don't know who I am going to vote for yet. I think I will probably vote in the Democratic race (un-enrolled voters can choose here), because I think it will be closer. I assume Romney will win the Republican primary easily (there won't be many votes, since there is almost no Republican party in Massachusetts to speak of...and many who do vote have supported him in the past when he was Governor.) My guess is that Clinton and Obama may be neck and neck here, so I will likely pick between the two...but I could change my mind:-)

One last thing...there was a mad dash by a whole bunch of states to move their primaries up earlier in the season to try and get extra attention. As a result, Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates for the Democratic convention, and all of the Republican contests before February 15 were stripped of half of their delegates. What happens if this goes to the convention on either side? Are they really going to not count all of those delegates? Especially for the Republicans...are they going to throw out half of the influence of a group of states that includes Florida? It will be interesting to see...


anne said...

I tell ya if I see one more Guliani ad down here....that man put all his eggs in the Florida basket.

brandy said...

Ahh, a girl after my own heart. I've been so... out of the loop lately and haven't had a good CNN fix in a few days but I'm with you saying that this election is wide open. The Guiliani technique of playing the 'big and later' states is one that I'm interested in watching to see if it pays off. Personally, I'm hoping Edwards does well in South Carolina. I'm just not mentally ready to deal with Obama vs. Clinton ALL THE TIME (truce or no truce). I like having someone else in there, it makes it more interesting. Besides, I like of what he says.