Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Florida

No, it's not a weekend recap, its about politics:-) Today is a huge day in the timeline of this election, and most watchers will be following the results closely. On sort of this note, Jessie has a good thing on being respectful of an office, and I basically agree with what she says (although it is very hard with Clinton the Male acting like he has been for the last two weeks.) I don't have a problem with criticism, or even sharp commentary, but there should be a basic level of respect that we should observe. Most of the time.

Anyway, the Florida election today is monumental for the Republicans. If McCain wins, I think he will sew up the nomination next Tuesday. If Romney wins, well, it is still very much up in the air. Huckabee and Giuliani essentially need a miracle today, and both appear to be finished. I have a feeling Romney may pull it out...I think that core Republicans hate McCain enough that they will jump to the more purely-conservative guy that is tolerable and can win today. But we shall see.

If things go as they look like they might, this will give us the answer on Guliani's strategy: it didn't work. I understand what he was doing, but I think his big mistake was skipping New Hampshire. His kind of tax-cutting fiscal conservatism probably would have played really well there, and he forfeited all of the attention that comes with running up there. He probably could have gotten away with skipping Iowa, Michigan, Wyoming, Nevada and South Carolina entirely if he had finished a strong second or better in New Hampshire. But as it went, he was just out of the pictures for entirely too long.

The Democratic race is really getting good...the gloves have totally come off! While the press seems to thing that Bill Clinton's attempts to focus the debate on race failed, I am not sure that we can make that judgement until after next week. He certainly did damage to his personal reputation and may have harmed his legacy (if he even has one), but he did succeed in making sure that every headline on Sunday morning was "Black voters came out in huge numbers for Obama." From a purely practical standpoint, that isn't necessarily a headline he wants.

Florida is the second major state (Michigan) where the Democratic primary doesn't count because of a snit with the National Committee, so there is no drama in today's vote. And true to her nature as a weasel, Clinton is lobbying really hard to have the delegates from Michigan and Florida count at the convention. Which makes sense...since she is the only one who broke the promise of all the candidates to not compete in either. Don't like how the game is going? Have your friends change the rules...

OK, that may be harsh. Or maybe not!

Anyway, I have a couple of Florida readers, but at least one is a registered Democrat and doesn't really get a vote that counts today. But I am interested to see if the others are gonna vote in the Republican primary, and what they think of the massive barrage of advertising that has gone on, and the rising animosity of the debate. Anyone fit that bill and care to chime in? Anyone have any other predictions for today?

5 comments:

Jessie said...

You put this SO much better than I do! Thanks for the plug :)

AaroN said...

I think you're spot-on with the Hillary prediction. Of course, she was on record stating she wouldn't run for prez in '08 and here we are. :)

Quite honestly, I've been under the weather and paid little (no) attention to the results of Florida. I'll wait for your un-biased opinion. :D

anne said...

Well you know how I feel about this.

I did hear that FL could be a good test for Dems as well for how they will do next Tues - since they didn't campaign here and it was not possible for them to campaign in ever Super Tues state - it will be a good test to see who can win without having the benefit of bombarding a state

brandy said...

Dude, you knew I would be loving this post didn't you??

I'm hoping that Giuliani pulls out soon. His strategy didn't work (I agree about New Hampshire, going into Florida with no momentum was foolish- even if money was tight and he had to make sacrifices) and the longer he stays in the race the more he hurts McCain (the only Republican I can tolerate).

As for the Democrats- Hillary is so... sneaky. After the nominees decide not to campaign in Florida she just goes there for 'fundraisers'. I hate how she came out tonight and talked of her 'victory' in the State. It just seemed so... cheap.

And for Bill... he's sort of broke my heart. I hate that all the good work he did for minorities and the awareness and dedication he put towards volunteerism/community service will be overshadowed and we will remember him as the guy who meddled in his wife's campaign.

kristin b said...

honestly, i was pretty pleased with mccain's win. i think he has the best chance of winning the election. but we shall see.

i too thought it was funny that hilary visited florida still. she must be confident she'll take the democratic nomination!